For the human mobile communications business to make a monumental contribution to the GSM network is accelerating the pace of retreat, officially announced the closure of the GSM network plan operator list has been a long list of Singapore M1, Singtel, StarHub, Telstra, AT & T … …

2G network still takes ten years

2G by countries to abandon China at least wait for ten years


With the rapid spread of 4G, GSM is expected to accelerate the market out of the global service, then the question is how will China do? – I believe that the GSM network in China has at least 10 years of life, I mean the GSM network is completely out of Service time.

According to ITU’s vision, in 2020, 5G will be able to commercialize in the world, is it in China, the mobile communications industry really will be together? I am also surprised to judge this, but review the history and face reality, GSM The idea that the network can survive at least ten years in China is not sensational.

There are two main reasons for foreign operators to shut down the GSM network, one is the network maintenance costs and income compared to a serious departure from the existence of this network is not necessary, such as Australia Telecom in 2014, said GSM accounted for the proportion of total traffic Less than 1%; the other is to make way for the 4G network, free up the spectrum to 4G with. To know that every year in foreign operators to pay huge sums of money to the government.

Therefore, the market economy in the enterprise to consider the problem or mainly economic interests, so foreign operators will be based on their own situation to develop GSM network retreat plan.

But this does not mean cost-effective considerations apply to China’s national conditions Moreover, even if only considering the economic interests of China’s operators are unlikely to retire in this matter in the big frenzy. Let’s take a look at some of the data to illustrate the problem:

As of April 2015, the number of 2G users was 649 million; as of March 2015, the total number of Chinese base stations was 3.539 million, of which the total number of 3G / 4G base stations reached 2.233 million, that is, 1.26 million 2G base stations.

Such as large-scale assets and users, both for operators and users, the GSM delisting on the agenda looks like a fantasy story.

This point, from China Unicom and China Telecom in the 4G era of terminal strategy on the multi-mode requirements, can also be seen. That is for China Mobile and China Unicom, as long as there is enough size of the 2G users, then the economic benefits will be able to maintain the scale effect, no need to worry about network retreat things.

Of course, history does not forget the future of the division, if we do not understand the history of China’s PHS service, perhaps we can more clearly understand the GSM network retreat is not an easy thing.

PHS in China officially withdrew from the stage of history is the time in 2014, this year, China Telecom and China Unicom announced the PHS stop service: Beijing Unicom announced on December 31, 2014, to stop PHS services.

In theory, according to the requirements of the Ministry of Industry, China Telecom and China Unicom two operators need to be completed by the end of 2011, PHS users to clear the frequency of network work, this requirement is issued in 2009 when the 3G license, in order to To TD-SCDMA, that is, China’s 3G standard made way to make the request.
In other words, the country to the PHS delisting to stay enough for nearly three years of the buffer period, but also in seven years after the official launch of the stage of history. In January 2014, the Ministry of Industry and the last statistics show that PHS users have 7.37 million.

Compared with PHS, GSM retreat is clearly more complex systems engineering, which involves the following questions:
1) GSM spectrum distribution problem in the 4G era
2) issue of the third FDD license issue
3) the issue of maximizing the interests of state-owned capital
4) the interests of users and the quality of service complaints assessment of the problem
5) the three major operators of the market competition and balance of the problem
6) the development of industrial chain supporting services

In short, GSM in China is not a simple market economy in the rational decision-making business issues, so the relevant government departments did not officially start before the discussion, GSM delisting things, not on the operator’s agenda.

Of course, if the base camp of GSM to speed up the GSM network retreat process, I believe that China’s process may be accelerated, but then fast, GSM in China at least 10 years of the life cycle.
With the 4G accelerated popularity, 5G pavement, China’s mobile communications will show the magnificent scene of four generations together.

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